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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jun 01 1240 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
01 Jun 2024	186	016
02 Jun 2024	195	011
03 Jun 2024	205	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was an X1.4 flare with peak time 08:48 UTC June 01 from NOAA AR 3697, the most complex region on the disk. This region also produced a X1.1 flare with peak time 22:03 UTC May 31. Two new active regions emerged, newly numbered NOAA AR 3699 and an as yet unnumbered region at S05W30, but both were quiet. NOAA AR 3691 continued to decay and produced C-class flaring activity. NOAA AR3698 also produced C-class flaring activity and grew slightly. The rest of the regions were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for further X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Vent solaire

The solar wind reflected slow solar wind conditions with speeds between 330 and 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was stable around 5nT, with a minimum Bz value of -5nT. A mildly enhanced solar wind speed and magnetic field may be possible in the next 24 hours, due to a glancing blow from the partial halo CME on May 29 and the weak influence from the small positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on May 29.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 2 and Local K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels in the next 24 hours, however isolated active to minor storm conditions may be possible on June 01, due to the predicted glancing blow from the May 29 CME.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain so for the next day. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase due to strong flaring from NOAA AR 3697, but this is unlikely due to its current position.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 197, sur la base de 04 stations.

Indices solaires pour 31 May 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	158
Flux solaire à 10 cm	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	012
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	155 - Basé sur 24 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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