Affichage des archives de samedi, 8 juin 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jun 08 1239 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
08 Jun 2024	190	013
09 Jun 2024	188	007
10 Jun 2024	188	045

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M9.7-flare, with peak time 01:49 UTC on June 08, from NOAA AR 3697 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3697 is the most complex AR (beta-gamma-delta) and responsible for 6 M-class flares over the past 24h. NOAA AR 3709 (beta) was responsible for the remaining M-class flare. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely and a chance of X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 field of view at June 08 01:48 UTC. The plane-of-the- sky speed of the CME was around 1000 km/s. The CME was associated with the M9.7 flare peaking 01:49 UTC on June 08, from NOAA AR 3697 (S18W53) near the west limb. Analysis of this CME is ongoing but a glancing blow is possible in the beginning of June 10.

Vent solaire

At around 10:15 UTC on June 07, the interplanetary magnetic field increased from 5 nT to 8 nT, the solar wind speed increased sharply from 348 km/s to 400 km/s and the solar wind density increased from 1,20/cm3 to 3,30/cm3. The Bz decreased gradually to reach -15nT at 14:00 UTC. This feature is potentially linked to an ICME arrival. The solar wind remained at around 450km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 6nT for the rest of the period. The solar wind is expected to become perturbed on June 10, due to the arrival of the ICME of June 08.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions reached moderate storm levels both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 6, Local K Bel) on June 07 between 12:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC, and active levels between 00:00 UTC-03:00 UTC on June 08. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next 24h. Minor to moderate storm conditions (Kp 6) may be reached during the passing of the ICME early June 10.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, increased sharply above the 10 pfu threshold June 08 at 02:55 UTC, and reached maximum level of 1030 pfu at 08:00 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, rose above the nominal levels and peaked at 8.3 pfu at 03:40 UTC. This proton event is associated with the M9.7 flare from NOAA AR 3697. The proton flux is expected to remain elevated over the coming days and any further flaring activity with associated proton events from NOAA AR 3697 could cause further increases.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 172, sur la base de 13 stations.

Indices solaires pour 07 Jun 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	157
Flux solaire à 10 cm	184
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	038
Ap estimé	033
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	164 - Basé sur 29 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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