Affichage des archives de mardi, 25 juin 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jun 25 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
25 Jun 2024	193	013
26 Jun 2024	193	007
27 Jun 2024	191	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and one M-class flare recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was an M1.1 flare, peaking at 19:10 UTC on June 25, associated with NOAA AR 3713, which rotated over the west limb. NOAA AR 3720 became magnetically more complex (from beta to beta-gamma class), but produced only C-class flares in the last 24 hours. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA ARs 3716 and 3723 (beta class). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible and a small chance of isolated X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A large filament eruption was observed on SW quadrant around 02:18 UTC on June 25. An associated CME can be seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 05:43 UTC on June 25. We are awaiting for the corresponding coronagraph data for further analysis. No other Earth- directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions, with some transient features having a mild influence. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude reached 9 nT around 10:35 UTC on June 25. The solar wind speed ranged between 295 km/s and 350 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -7 nT and 7 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually return to slow solar wind conditions over the next few days.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp = 1-3-, K-Bel = 1-2). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was slightly enhanced on June 24 but remained well below radiation storm levels. There has been a data outage for the GOES Proton Flux since approximately 21:20 UTC on June 24. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day, with a very small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 139, sur la base de 21 stations.

Indices solaires pour 24 Jun 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	198
Flux solaire à 10 cm	199
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	006
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	152 - Basé sur 29 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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