Affichage des archives de samedi, 29 juin 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jun 29 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
29 Jun 2024	180	017
30 Jun 2024	182	024
01 Jul 2024	184	024

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with a few C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was a C3.2 flare, peaking at 14:40 UTC on June 28, associated with an active region (AR) behind the east limb (N10E89), which is currently rotating onto the disk. NOAA AR 3723 (beta class), which produced only one low-level C-class flare in the last 24 hours, appears to be shrinking and reducing in complexity. Other regions on the disk have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares probable and a chance of M-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A faint partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 00:48 UTC on June 28, directed towards the southeast from Earth's perspective. This CME is likely associated with flaring near NOAA AR 3730. Given the source's location close to the disk center, an impact at Earth is possible from late on July 1st. This ICME will likely interact with the one from June 27 on its way to Earth, although the prediction of its arrival remains with low confidence. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected ongoing ICME influences. The total interplanetary magnetic field strength increased at the start of the period, reaching a maximum value of 24 nT, before gradually decreasing and stabilizing around 9 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 420 km/s and 490 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a minimum value of -16 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated due to the ICME passage, with a chance of a weak enhancement on June 29 and July 1 due to the possible arrival of CMEs from June 25 and June 27-28, although with low confidence.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached severe storm levels globally (NOAA Kp 8-) between 12:00 and 15:00 UTC on June 28 due to the ICME arrival. Locally, moderate storm conditions were observed over Belgium (K-Bel = 6) between 12:00 and 18:00 UTC on June 28. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with a chance of isolated active or minor storm periods due to ongoing CME influence and a small chance of an CME arrival from June 25.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 209, sur la base de 16 stations.

Indices solaires pour 28 Jun 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	181
AK Chambon La Forêt	062
AK Wingst	061
Ap estimé	063
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	168 - Basé sur 25 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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