Affichage des archives de jeudi, 11 juillet 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jul 11 1238 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
11 Jul 2024	210	005
12 Jul 2024	205	005
13 Jul 2024	200	020

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and multiple low M-class flares. The strongest activity was an M1.4-flare, peak time 12:04 UTC on July 10, associated with the largest and most complex active region on the visible disc, NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma). This region contributed to most of the flaring activity on disc. An isolated M1.3-flare, peak time 04:23 UTC on July 11, was produced by the newly numbered region NOAA AR 3745 (beta) and some more flaring activity was produced by regions NOAA AR 3743 (beta) and NOAA AR 3744 (beta). The remaining active regions have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days with 70% chance for M-class flaring and 15% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting at 21:24 UTC on July 10. The CME is related to a prominence eruption near the north-east limb. Due to the location of the source region no significant impact on Earth is expected, though potential arrival of a shock front is undergoing analysis. At a similar time another narrow southward CME was observed followed a filament eruption to the south of NOAA AR 3738. Despite its location on the central meridian this second CME is rather narrow and travels mostly southward suggesting no significant Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

An equatorial to mid-latitude positive-polarity coronal hole continues to reside on the central meridian. The high speed stream emanating from this coronal hole is expected to arrive to Earth on July 13.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied between 350 km/s and 416 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 5.3 nT and a minimum Bz of -4.6 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions might register weak enhancements on July 11 with expected mild high speed stream (HSS) arrivals. More notable disturbances in the near-Earth solar wind are expected on July 13th with anticipated faster HSS arrival.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled over Belgium. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions with possible isolated active periods are anticipated for July 11 and July 12. Quiet to active conditions with possible isolated minor storm levels are expected on July 13th.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 173, sur la base de 16 stations.

Indices solaires pour 10 Jul 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	006
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	176 - Basé sur 22 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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