Affichage des archives de vendredi, 12 juillet 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jul 12 1245 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
12 Jul 2024	203	005
13 Jul 2024	200	018
14 Jul 2024	200	016

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with background C-class flaring. There are currently nine numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. The largest region remains NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma). NOAA AR 3743 (beta-gamma) has exhibited some growth and increased its magnetic complexity. Two new small and magnetically simple regions have been numbered, namely NOAA AR 3746 (beta) and NOAA AR 3747 (alpha). The remaining active regions have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with 70% chance for M-class flaring and 15% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied between 331 km/s and 443 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field registered a maximum value of 6.5 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at background levels throughout July 12 and registered moderate disturbances on July 13 with anticipated high speed stream arrival related to a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally mostly quiet with a single unsettled period over Belgium. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for July 12 and Quiet to active conditions with possible isolated minor storm levels are expected on July 13th and July 14.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 166, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 11 Jul 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	205
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	006
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	172 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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