Affichage des archives de lundi, 15 juillet 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Jul 15 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
15 Jul 2024	229	008
16 Jul 2024	225	010
17 Jul 2024	220	003

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours with three M-class flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3738 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma- Delta, Catania sunspot group 85) produced all of the M-class flaring activity (namely an M1.0 at 14 Jul 20:57 UTC, an M1.2 at 15 Jul 03:35 UTC, and an M2.7 at 15 Jul 09:37 UTC) and most of the C-class flares. Bright C-class flares were also produced by NOAA AR 3751 (a C7 at 14 Jul 21:26 UTC) and NOAA AR 3744 (a C8 at 14 Jul 21:58 UTC). Further M-class flaring activity is expected from NOAA AR 3738 with a small chance of an X-flare in the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

A northern Coronal Hole (CH) with negative polarity stared crossing the central meridian during the past 24 hours. An associated High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective on 18 Jul.

Vent solaire

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 270 and 330 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 6 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -3 and 4 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. A high speed stream related to a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on July 10 is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2), while locally they had a brief period of unsettled conditions (K BEL 1-3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to continue at quiet levels and possibly rise to unsettled levels due to the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so, although there is a small chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 240, sur la base de 21 stations.

Indices solaires pour 14 Jul 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	234
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	007
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	220 - Basé sur 28 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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