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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Aug 13 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
13 Aug 2024	264	008
14 Aug 2024	260	010
15 Aug 2024	256	018

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels, with one M-class flare recorded. The largest flare was a M1.23-flare, with peak time 22:57 UTC on August 12 and is associated with active region NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta), NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) and NOAA AR 3777 (beta- gamma) are the largest, most magnetically complex regions on disk and produced most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 3777 has started to rotate over the west limb. The other regions were stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Trous coronaux

A negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole began to transit the central meridian in the northern hemisphere on August 12.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions were under the waning influence of an ICME. The solar wind speed decreased from 508 km/s to 408 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 16 nT and 22 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -18 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector until 03:30 UTC on August 13 when it switched to being mainly in the in the negative sector. In the next 24 hours, slow solar wind conditions are expected.

Géomagnétisme

In the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions have reached severe storm levels globally (NOAA Kp 8) and moderate storm levels locally (K BEL 6), in response to the enhancement of the solar wind parameters and prolonged periods of soutward directed Bz component. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 217, sur la base de 21 stations.

Indices solaires pour 12 Aug 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	272
AK Chambon La Forêt	070
AK Wingst	087
Ap estimé	095
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	228 - Basé sur 31 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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