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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Aug 21 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
21 Aug 2024	235	008
22 Aug 2024	235	011
23 Aug 2024	235	010

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M1.3-flare, with peak time 17:08 UTC on August 20 2024, from NOAA AR 3785 (beta). There are currently 11 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3784 and 3790 are the most complex AR (beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a low chance of X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

There was an eruption seen in AIA/SDO 193 on August 20 at 17:30 UTC from NOAA AR 3793, but no associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has yet been observed in the available coronagraph images. No other earth-directed CMEs have been observed.

Vent solaire

The solar wind at the Earth remained slow over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed remained around 350 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field was stable around 6nT. The Bz reached a minimum value of -6nT. Small enhancements of the solar wind speed may occur on August 22 due to a possible high-speed-stream arrival associated with the coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on August 19.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (Kp 3- and K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions may reach active levels on the 22 August, due to a possible high-speed stream arrival.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 215, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 20 Aug 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	219
Flux solaire à 10 cm	244
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Ap estimé	012
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	223 - Basé sur 28 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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