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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Aug 28 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
28 Aug 2024	216	031
29 Aug 2024	210	037
30 Aug 2024	208	017

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels, with several C-class flares being detected. The largest flare was an C5.0 flare, peaking at 15:39 UTC on August 27, associated with NOAA AR 3800 (beta-gamma class). Currently, there are 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3800, which has grown in size, was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours, together with NOAA AR 3796 (beta-gamma class) and 3803 (beta class). NOAA AR 3802 (beta class) and 3792 (alpha class), which remained quiet, are now approaching the Western limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares probable, and a small chance of X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

Trous coronaux

A positive polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere began to cross the central meridian on August 27.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected ongoing ICME influence. The total interplanetary magnetic field reached values of 17 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 300 km/s and 340 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a minimum value of -15 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated due to the ICME passage, with a chance of a weak enhancement late on August 28 - August 29 due to the arrival of a high- speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, that started to cross the central meridian on August 25.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached moderate storm levels globally (NOAA Kp 6-) between 00:00 and 03:00 UTC on August 28 due to the ICME arrival. Locally, only active conditions were observed over Belgium (K-Bel = 4). Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with a chance of isolated minor or moderate storm periods due to ongoing CME influence and a possible HSS arrival.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements in case of increased solar activity.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 188, sur la base de 18 stations.

Indices solaires pour 27 Aug 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	195
Flux solaire à 10 cm	221
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	013
Ap estimé	014
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	184 - Basé sur 30 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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