Affichage des archives de dimanche, 8 septembre 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Sep 08 1256 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
08 Sep 2024	222	010
09 Sep 2024	222	010
10 Sep 2024	222	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours beside de number of complex regions visible on the solar disc, with several C-class flares. The strongest was an C7.2 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3808. The most magnetically complex active regions currently on the disk are NOAA AR 3806 AR 3811, AR 3813 and AR 3815 (beta-gamma). Solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with the possibility of an M-class flare and a chance for isolated X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in LASCO/C2 coronagraph images at 00:36 UTC on September 8. This CME is associated with the filament eruption located at 15 degrees North and 23 degrees West. The projected speed is estimated to be about 600 km/s in the northwest direction. This eruption is believed to be Earth-directed and is currently under analysis. A preliminary estimate suggests an arrival time of September 10.

Vent solaire

The solar wind parameters reflect a slow wind speed regime. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) ranged between 5 nT and 9 nT. The southward IMF component (Bz) fluctuated between -6.5 nT and +9 nT. The solar wind speed remained around 315-430 km/s. Solar wind conditions are expected to become more enhanced in the next 24 hours due to the September 3 coronal mass ejection, combined with the high-speed stream from the small negative polarity coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on September 3.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally, with some periods of unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K-Dourbes indices of 1-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours, with possible active periods in response to the anticipated enhancement of solar wind conditions.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has now returned to background levels. It is expected to remain at background levels over the next 24 hours. However, there is a small chance of exceeding the threshold if high-energy flares or eruptions occur.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at normal levels and is expected to stay that way over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 174, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 07 Sep 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	222
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	007
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	164 - Basé sur 17 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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