Affichage des archives de vendredi, 11 octobre 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Oct 11 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
11 Oct 2024	214	057
12 Oct 2024	212	026
13 Oct 2024	210	010

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with four M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M3.0 flare from beyond the west limb, peaking at 22:30 UTC on October 10. There are currently six numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 217 (NOAA AR 3848, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). SIDC SG 282 (NOAA AR 3853, magnetic type alpha) has emerged in the northeast quadrant. A new active region, SIDC SG 283 (NOAA AR 3854, magnetic type beta-gamma) is now numbered west of SIDC SG 281 (NOAA AR 3852, magnetic type beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Trous coronaux

The northern, negative polarity coronal hole reported on October 09 has fully crossed the central meridian. A possible, mild high- speed stream associated with it could arrive at Earth starting from UTC midnight on October 11 but may be indistinguishable from the influence of the coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival reported on October 10. The southern, positive polarity coronal hole has fully crossed the central meridian. A possible, mild high-speed stream associated with it could arrive at Earth starting from UTC midday on October 13.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions were enhanced during the last 24 hours due to the arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME), related to the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed at 02:30 UTC on October 09. A shock was detected in the solar wind data (ACE and DSCOVR) at 14:45 UTC on October 10. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 9 nT to 25 nT, with the Bz component changing from 6 nT to -25 nT. The solar wind speed jumped from 460 km/s to around 790 km/s. The solar wind density at the shock jumped from 9 ppcc to around 25 ppcc (DSCOVER). The maximum magnetic field value was around 46 nT (at 22:00 UTC on October 10), with the Bz component reaching values of around -46 nT at the same time. The interplanetary magnetic field angle changed from positive to negative at 22:00 UTC on October 10. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours, due to the continued influence from the ICME arrival and the possible arrival a mild high-speed stream from the northern, negative polarity coronal hole.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions globally over the last 24 hours were mostly at severe storm levels (NOAA Kp 8- to 9-). Geomagnetic conditions locally over the last 24 hours were mostly at major storm levels (K BEL 7). Mostly minor to moderate storm conditions, with possible major storm intervals, are expected globally and locally in the next 24 hours due to the continued influence of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival from the CME that lifted off at 02:30 on October 09 and the possible arrival a mild high-speed stream from the northern, negative polarity coronal hole.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was at minor radiation storm levels, with short moderate storm intervals until 03:30 UTC on October 11. It has since decreased below the 10 pfu threshold but currently remains close to it. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours, pending further eruptive activity.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was close to the threshold around 15:00 UTC on October 10 but remained below it. It is expected to remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 137, sur la base de 18 stations.

Indices solaires pour 10 Oct 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	171
Flux solaire à 10 cm	216
AK Chambon La Forêt	116
AK Wingst	105
Ap estimé	103
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	141 - Basé sur 16 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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