Affichage des archives de vendredi, 18 octobre 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Oct 18 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
18 Oct 2024	172	012
19 Oct 2024	175	017
20 Oct 2024	175	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C6.6-flare, with peak time 14:27 UTC on October 17 2024, from SIDC Sunspot Group 290 NOAA AR 3860 (beta). There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 285 (NOAA AR 3856) is the most complex AR (beta-gamma-delta).The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a chance of X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Trous coronaux

The small equatorial positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole crossed the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on October 21.

Vent solaire

The solar wind at the Earth is slow. The solar wind speed decreased from around 400 km/s to 370 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 8 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. No enhancement of the solar wind speed and magnetic field is expected in the next 24h.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 3) over the past 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was shortly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold on OCT17 21:30 UTC, and has a small chance to exceed this level again shortly during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 126, sur la base de 08 stations.

Indices solaires pour 17 Oct 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	179
Flux solaire à 10 cm	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Ap estimé	010
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	143 - Basé sur 20 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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