Affichage des archives de vendredi, 20 décembre 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Dec 20 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
20 Dec 2024	179	007
21 Dec 2024	181	007
22 Dec 2024	193	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

A total of 6 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. There have been four M-class flares in the last 24 hours. The largest one was an M3.8 flare peaking at 15:34 UTC on 19 December, coming from SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3928, beta magnetic field configuration). The other M-class flares came from the same AR and one from SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA Active Region 3924, beta gamma magnetic field configuration), which is rotating out of view over the west limb. More M-class flares can be expected and X-flares are possible in the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

A full halo CME was observed at 18:16 UTC on 19 December by LASCO C3 (after a data gap of several hours). The source of this CME is believed to be backsided and will thus not arrive to the Earth.

Vent solaire

The solar wind at Earth has a speed around 460 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 8 nT (DSCOVR). Similar conditions are expected to persist in the next 24 hours. The CME from 15 December may still arrive today, but it has probably missed the Earth.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions have reached active levels both globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel up to 4). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The CME from 15 December may still arrive today and create disturbed conditions, but it has probably missed the Earth.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 152, sur la base de 13 stations.

Indices solaires pour 19 Dec 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	117
Flux solaire à 10 cm	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	014
Ap estimé	012
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	121 - Basé sur 09 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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