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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Dec 21 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
21 Dec 2024	184	007
22 Dec 2024	186	007
23 Dec 2024	188	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. Most of the activity came from the sunspot groups that rotated into view over the east limb in the past days. The largest flare was a M1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 3030) peaking on December 21 at 00:38 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932). Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

A small coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 83 (equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity) crossed central meridian on December 20.

Vent solaire

The solar wind at Earth has a speed around 470 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 8 nT (DSCOVR). The interplanetary magnetic field has a negative polarity (towards the Sun). Similar slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel up to 3). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater-than-10 MeV GOES proton flux has been slightly increasing since around 17:00 UTC on December 20. While it remains below the threshold and will probably not exceed it, the possibility of crossing the threshold within the next 24 hours cannot be excluded.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 164, sur la base de 06 stations.

Indices solaires pour 20 Dec 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	212
Flux solaire à 10 cm	184
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	016
Ap estimé	015
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	154 - Basé sur 21 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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