Affichage des archives de dimanche, 29 décembre 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Dec 29 1425 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
29 Dec 2024	260	007
30 Dec 2024	260	007
31 Dec 2024	260	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with one X-class flare and 11 M-class flares observed. A total of 12 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the solar disk during this period. The largest flare was an X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3109) that peaked on December 29 at 07:18 UTC. This flare originated from SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active Region 3936), currently positioned at N10W33, with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. This region also produced several M-class flares, including an M4.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3111) at 07:59 UTC and an M3.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3110) at 06:59 UTC, highlighting its role as the primary driver of the recent heightened solar activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3933), located at S08W65, exhibited intense flaring activity, producing multiple M-class and C-class flares. Among these, the most significant was an M3.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3106) that peaked on December 29 at 05:26 UTC and an M2.7 flare (SIDC Flare 3104) at 10:39 UTC. While this region’s magnetic complexity (Beta-Gamma) appears to be slightly decreasing, it remains a significant contributor to solar activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA Active Region 3939), positioned at S17E29, also contributed to the heightened activity with multiple M-class flares. Notable among them was an M3.5 flare (SIDC Flare 3114) that peaked on December 29 at 05:47 UTC. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain high over the next 24 hours, with a high likelihood of M-class flares and a moderate chance of X-class flares. The most significant contributors to ongoing activity are SIDC Sunspot Groups 349 (NOAA Active Region 3936), 346 (NOAA Active Region 3933), and 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932), which will continue to be closely monitored.

Éjection de masse coronale

Over the past 24 hours, multiple narrow and slow Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery. A significant halo CME was first detected on December 29, 2024, at 06:12 UTC. This CME was observed in the southeast direction with a projected average speed of 767 km/s in the plane of the sky, ranging from a minimum speed of 568 km/s to a maximum speed of 918 km/s. The source region for this CME remains unclear. No significant flares or dimming events have been observed on the visible solar disk that could be conclusively linked to this CME. It is presumed that the CME may have originated from the far side of the Sun. Further analysis is required to determine its trajectory, and updates will be provided as additional data becomes available.

Trous coronaux

A recurrent coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 60), a mid- latitude coronal hole with positive polarity, is now rotating over the eastern limb. This coronal hole previously crossed the central meridian on September 13, October 10, November 6, and December 5. Past high-speed streams (HSS) associated with this coronal hole have had a mild impact on solar wind conditions, with speeds reaching approximately 500 km/s and K-index values indicating active geomagnetic conditions. Its influence will be monitored as it reaches its geo-effective position in the coming days.

Vent solaire

The solar wind at Earth remains relatively steady in a slow- speed regime, despite the heightened solar activity characterized by multiple intense flares and coronal mass ejections from magnetically complex sunspot groups. The solar wind speed remains well below 400 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field generally remains below 5 nT, with occasional slight elevations up to 10 nT. The southward component, Bz, was predominantly positive. This slow-speed solar wind regime is expected to persist. However, given the ongoing solar activity, the possibility of a glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection (CME) or other solar wind structures causing temporary disturbances cannot be fully excluded.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were very quiet globally (NOAA Kp: 0 to 1) and quiet locally over Belgium (K-Bel: 0 to 2). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist over the coming hours. However, short periods of unsettled to active conditions cannot be fully excluded, given the heightened solar activity and the potential influence of solar wind structures near Earth.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater-than-10 MeV GOES proton flux has returned to background levels. However, a small chance of a proton event crossing the threshold within the next 24 hours cannot be fully excluded, given the heightened solar activity involving multiple intense flares and coronal mass ejections from magnetically complex sunspot groups.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 remained below the threshold level over the past 24 hours, while GOES 18 briefly recorded flux levels reaching the threshold. It is expected that the flux will remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at normal levels and is anticipated to remain stable over the same period.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 269, sur la base de 05 stations.

Indices solaires pour 28 Dec 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	260
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Ap estimé	003
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	259 - Basé sur 17 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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