Affichage des archives de mercredi, 1 janvier 2025

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jan 01 1242 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
01 Jan 2025	210	064
02 Jan 2025	202	026
03 Jan 2025	187	011

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 4 M-class flares recorded. SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active Region 3936) is the most complex with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and produced 3 M-class flares including a long duration M2.7 flare (SIDC Flare 3159) peaking on December 31 at 22:19 UTC. This region is now rotating over the west limb. The largest flare was a M2.9 flare (SIDC Flare 3160), peaking on December 31 at 22:50 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 350 (NOAA Active Region 3938). SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939) continued to increase in size, while SIDC Sunspot Groups 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932) and 354 (NOAA Active Region 3942) decayed. A new region emerged in the south east of the disk and was numbered numbered SIDC Sunspot group 357 (NOAA Active Region 3944). This region has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration but was so far quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and X-class flares possible.

Éjection de masse coronale

A filament eruption at the disk centre near SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA AR 3939) was observed in GOES-R/SUVI 195 and 305 imagery around January 01 01:00 UTC. An associated faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 02:20 UTC January 01, directed to the south-west and is being analysed to see if it has an Earth directed component.

Trous coronaux

SIDC Coronal Hole 82 (equatorial coronal hole with a positive polarity) began to cross the central meridian on January 01.

Vent solaire

From 15:45 UTC on December 31, the solar wind parameters show the arrival of the first halo CME of December 29. The interplanetary magnetic field increased from 9 to 25 nT and the solar wind speed increased from 400 to 475 km/s. From 02:00 UTC January 01, the solar wind speed increased further reaching values of over 550 km/s. After 02:00 UTC, the Bz also turned strongly negative with a minimum value of -22 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to be further enhanced by a possible second CME arrival on January 01, with the CME effects continuing into January 02.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached moderate geomagnetic storm conditions (NOAA Kp 6, Local K Bel 5) between 09:00 to 12:00 UTC on January 01, due to the CME arrival and extended period of negative Bz. Further minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on January 01 and during the start of January 02 before returning to unsettled to active conditions.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. However, due to the number of complex regions on disk and the high flaring probability, a possible proton event over the next days cannot be excluded.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 216, sur la base de 06 stations.

Indices solaires pour 31 Dec 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	218
AK Chambon La Forêt	033
AK Wingst	017
Ap estimé	017
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	179 - Basé sur 12 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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