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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jan 03 1234 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
03 Jan 2025	202	019
04 Jan 2025	194	024
05 Jan 2025	185	016

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours with 1 X-class flare and 1 M-class flare recorded. The largest flare was an X1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3184), peaking on January 03 at 11:39 UTC. This was produced by newly numbered SIDC Sunspot group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947) which rotated onto disk over the east solar limb during the period and had previously produced C-class flaring activity. The other most active region was SIDC Sunspot Group 351 (NOAA Active Region 3939) which produced an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3178) with peak time January 02 at 17:40 UTC. Six new regions were numbered over the period, the largest of which being SIDC Sunspot Group 359 and 360 (NOAA Active Regions 3946 and 3947 respectively). The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Trous coronaux

SIDC Coronal Holes 60 and 82 (positive polarity coronal holes in the southern and northern hemisphere, respectively) continue to traverse the central meridian.

Vent solaire

The interplanetary magnetic field continued to be slightly enhanced under the waning CME influence, with values between 7 and 16 nT. The solar speed gradually decreased over the period, reducing from 550 km/s to around 450 km/s. Bz was mostly positive with a minimum value of -9 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to continue to gradually return to nominal conditions on January 03, further enhancements are likely from early on January 04 due to the arrival of the high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 60 and the glancing blow CME arrival.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions (NOAA Kp 4, local K Bel 4). Unsettled to active conditions are expected for January 03 and 04, with isolated minor storm intervals possible on January 04 due to possible combined high speed stream and CME arrivals.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active region 3936).

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 208, sur la base de 12 stations.

Indices solaires pour 02 Jan 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	212
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	020
Ap estimé	023
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	182 - Basé sur 13 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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