Affichage des archives de dimanche, 5 janvier 2025

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jan 05 1248 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
05 Jan 2025	209	025
06 Jan 2025	200	021
07 Jan 2025	190	039

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours with 1 X-class flare and 5 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an X1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 3199) with peak time 12:48 UTC on January 04. This was associated with SIDC Sunspot group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947) in the north-east quadrant of the solar disk. This region also produced the 5 M-class flares and continues to develop and has now a beta- gamma-delta configuration. Further high-level C-class flaring was recorded near SIDC Sunspot group 351 (NOAA Active Region 3939), including a long duration C9.3 flare with peak time 15:09 UTC January 04 and a long duration C7.6 flare with peak time 19:15 UTC January 04. Two new regions were numbered, one returning region in the south-east (SIDC Sunspot region 337, NOAA Active Region 3950) and one region that emerged in the northern hemisphere (SIDC Sunspot region 367, NOAA Active Region 3952), but both appear simple and quiet. The remaining regions were also either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and X-class flares possible.

Éjection de masse coronale

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection directed to the south-west was first detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery from 18:54 UTC January 05. This is associated with the long duration C7.6 flare that occurred between SIDC Sunspot group 351 (NOAA Active Region 3939) and some new flux emergence to the north-east of it. The partial halo CME had a speed of over 1000 km/s and initial analysis suggests it will have an Earth directed component, with initial analysis suggesting a possible glancing blow arrival at Earth from early on January 07, further analysis is ongoing.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions reflected ongoing high speed stream influence. The interplanetary magnetic field showed a decreasing trend reducing from 16 to 6 nT. Bz was negative between 14:00 and 19:00 UTC January 04 with a minimum value of -11 nT, before turning mostly positive until 08:30 UTC on January 05. The solar wind speed ranged between 500 km/s to 700 km/s, with a speed of around 550 km/s at the end of the period. The solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on January 05 and 06 under the influence of the high-speed stream associated with the positive polarity SIDC Coronal Hole 82. This was an elongated equatorial coronal hole that began to cross the central meridian on January 01. From January 07, further enhancements may be possible due to the glancing blow arrival on the CME from January 04.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5, local K Bel 4). Unsettled to minor storm conditions are expected for January 05 and 06, due ongoing high speed stream effects.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux as measured by GOES-18 began to increase quickly from 20:30 UTC January 04 and exceeded the 10 pfu threshold from 22:15 UTC on January 04, reaching a maximum value of 20 pfu at 00:55 UTC January 05. The proton flux reduced below this threshold from 09:40 UTC January 05, but remains elevated and with values near this threshold. Further increases in the proton flux remain possible over the next days due to the high number of complex active regions on the disk and near the west solar limb.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 175, sur la base de 04 stations.

Indices solaires pour 04 Jan 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	209
AK Chambon La Forêt	040
AK Wingst	029
Ap estimé	035
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	204 - Basé sur 08 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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