Affichage des archives de vendredi, 7 février 2025

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Feb 07 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
07 Feb 2025	184	010
08 Feb 2025	180	007
09 Feb 2025	178	024

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity reached high levels, with four M-class flares and multiple C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M7.5 flare (SIDC Flare 3543) peaking at 09:21 UTC on February 07, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-gamma). There are currently ten numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-gamma-delta), that is largest and magnetically most complex active region on the disk was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3978; alpha). Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976; beta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977, beta), that are currently approaching the west limb. Other regions on the disk have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Trous coronaux

A negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88) is crossing the central meridian since February 06.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have reflected a return to slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field was below 8 nT. The solar wind speed decreased from values about 500 km/s to 390 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -4 nT and 6 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next day, although minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field may be possible on February 07 due to possible arrival of a CME that left the Sun on February 02. From February 09, the solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly elevated, due to high speed stream arrival associated with negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88).

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1-3; K-Bel: 1-3). Conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet to unsettled, with a chance of reaching active levels on February 07 due to a possible CME arrival. From February 09, active conditions are expected with a possible isolated minor storm interval in response to the high-speed stream arrival.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase if any high energy flares or eruptions occur.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 143, sur la base de 02 stations.

Indices solaires pour 06 Feb 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	007
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	165 - Basé sur 15 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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