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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Feb 09 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
09 Feb 2025	171	014
10 Feb 2025	167	031
11 Feb 2025	163	012

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with multiple C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C8.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3560) peaking at 12:54 UTC on February 08, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Regions 3978; beta- gamma). There are currently ten numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 395 (NOAA Active Region 3984; beta) was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3978; beta-gamma) and SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-delta), that are currently the largest and magnetically most complex active regions on the disk and are currently approaching the west limb. A new, currently unnumbered active region has rotated on disk from the east limb, in the northeast quadrant, but remained quiet. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977; alpha). Other regions on the disk have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A faint and slow coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data at 10:12 UTC on February 08, directed primarily to the west from Earth's perspective. The CME is likely associated to M2.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3554), produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981). This CME is very faint, not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2, and is not expected to produce significant impact on Earth. Should any of the plasma arrive, possibly on February 12, it will probably be mixed with high speed streams on its way. No other Earth- directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

A low-latitude, negative-polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88) began crossing the central meridian on February 09. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth late on February 12.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) became slightly disturbed with the interplanetary magnetic field reached 18 nT at around 10:33 UTC on February 09. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between -6 nT and 14 nT. The solar wind speed followed an increasing trend, rising from 310 km/s to 410 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation switched to the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun) from 08:50 UTC on February 09. This might be associated with arrival of the compression region in front of the expected high-speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 88). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated on February 09 - 10, while the Earth remains under the influence for the high-speed stream.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1-3; K-Bel:1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active or minor storm levels over the next days in response to the high-speed stream arrival.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase if any high energy flares or eruptions occur.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 119, sur la base de 04 stations.

Indices solaires pour 08 Feb 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	009
Ap estimé	010
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	123 - Basé sur 08 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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