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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Feb 16 1235 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
16 Feb 2025	189	011
17 Feb 2025	191	010
18 Feb 2025	189	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at low levels, with multiple C-class flares. The largest flare was an C3.9 flare (SIDC Flare 3614) peaking at 00:05 UTC on February 15, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 405 (NOAA Active Region 3996, magnetic type beta). There are currently ten numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Groups 346 and 399 (NOAA Active Regions 3990 and 3992), both of magnetic type beta-gamma. SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region 3998, magnetic type beta) has emerged in the northeast quadrant, east of SIDC Sunspot Group 404 (NOAA Active Region 3997). A new, currently unnumbered active region emerged in the southeast quadrant, east of SIDC Sunspot Group 405 (NOAA Active Region 3996). SIDC Sunspot Groups 378 and 399 (NOAA Active Regions 3986 and 3992) are rotating behind the west limb. The two unnumbered active regions that emerged in the northwest quadrant on February 15 have decayed into plage. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares probable.

Éjection de masse coronale

Further analysis of the Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery at 22:00 UTC on February 14, 01:36 UTC on February 15 suggest no impact on Earth. A wide CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery at 13:25 UTC on February 15, lifting off the south limb with an estimated speed of 1255 km/s. It is a backsided event and it is not expected to impact the Earth. A narrow CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 10:15 UTC on February 16, lifting off the northwest limb. It is possibly associated with eruptive activity northwest of SIDC Sunspot Group 402 (NOAA Active Region 3993). Preliminary analysis suggests that a mild glancing blow may arrive at Earth starting from 08:00 UTC on February 20. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 data around 22:20 UTC on February 15 near SIDC Sunspot Group 404 (NOAA Active Region 3997). An associated narrow CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 23:35 UTC on February 15, lifting off the east limb. It is not expected to impact the Earth. A second filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 around 02:00 UTC on February 16 near the west limb. No associated CME was observed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Trous coronaux

A northern, mid-latitude, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 91) is crossing the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from February 19.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions (ACE & DSCOVR) were enhanced during the last 24 hours, under the influence of the high-speed stream from the southern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87). Speed values increased up to 690 km/s and have gradually decreased to to around 550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were around 5-6 nT. The Bz component varied between -6 nT and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, due to the declining influence of the high-speed stream from the southern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87).

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5-) between 15:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC on February 15, and then they were between unsettled and active levels (NOAA Kp 3+ to 4). Geomagnetic conditions locally were initially mostly at active levels (K Bel 4) until 19:00 UTC on February 15, decreasing then to unsettled (K Bel 3) and quiet levels (K Bel 2). Mostly unsettled to active conditions, (NOAA Kp 3-4, K Bel 3-4) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was above the threshold level between 12:00 UTC and 19:35 UTC on February 15 and has since remained close to the threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was above the threshold level between 15:45 UTC on February 14 and 02:25 UTC on February 15 and has since remained close to the threshold. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at moderate levels and is to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 184, sur la base de 13 stations.

Indices solaires pour 15 Feb 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	024
Ap estimé	027
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	170 - Basé sur 11 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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