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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Feb 26 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
26 Feb 2025	192	016
27 Feb 2025	190	023
28 Feb 2025	188	022

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with only C-class flared observed. The strongest activity was a C4.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3710) with peak time 17:58 UTC on Feb 25, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region 3998). A total of 11 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 408 remained the largest and most complex region, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. The other two notable regions on the visible solar disc being SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 4006) and SIDC Sunspot Group 409 (NOAA Active Region 4000), both classified as magnetic type beta-gamma. The remaining active regions are mostly simple and have either exhibited decay and/or remained quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with likely M-class flares and a small chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A wide westward coronal mass ejection (CME) associated to the M3.6 flare produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region 3998) on Feb 25 was first visible in the LASCO/C2 imagery around 12:30 UTC on Feb 25. The CME is estimated to miss the Earth . A filament located between 15 and 30 degrees west from the central meridian has erupted around 06:00 UTC on Feb 26. An associated narrow westward CME is now visible in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery and is currently being analysed for any potential impact at Earth. No other Earth-directed CME are observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Trous coronaux

Three positive polarity coronal holes have crossed the central meridian over the past 24 hours. High speed streams emanating from these coronal holes might be expected at Earth on Feb 28th.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected moderately disturbed solar wind conditions. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached 17.6 nT with a minimum Bz of -10 nT. The solar wind speed was smoothly varying between 344 km/s and 438 km/s. The B field phi angle has switched orientation from the negative to the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed over the next 24 hours with possible mild glancing blow arrivals on Feb26-Feb 27 and expected high speed stream arrival on Feb 28.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated minor storm levels. Unsettled to active conditions with likely minor storm levels and chances for moderate geomagnetic storms might be expected on Feb 28 with anticipated combined high speed stream arrivals.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has decreased below the 10 pfu minor radiation storm threshold and is currently on a decreasing trend. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to continue to decrease towards background levels over the next 24 hours. A warning condition has been raised due to the remaining chances for new enhancements related to possible solar eruptive activity from the three complex active regions on the visible solar disc.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and GOES 18 electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 113, sur la base de 14 stations.

Indices solaires pour 25 Feb 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	190
Flux solaire à 10 cm	190
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	008
Ap estimé	009
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	165 - Basé sur 10 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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