Affichage des archives de jeudi, 27 mars 2025

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Mar 27 1302 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
27 Mar 2025	150	022
28 Mar 2025	150	074
29 Mar 2025	150	031

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare and several C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M2.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3921) peaking at 00:37 UTC on March 27, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 455 (NOAA Active Region 4043). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 455) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 4 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Groups 412 and 455 (NOAA Active Regions 4035 and 4043) are the complex regions with its beta magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a small chance of X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

Flaring activities from SIDC Sunspot Group 405 (NOAA AR 4028) was accompanied with a narrow coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which is not expected to arrive at the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Earth is currently inside a very fast solar wind stream, due to the arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the large, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 60). This coronal hole is extension of the southern polar coronal hole extending all across the solar equator (connected to equatorial SIDC Coronal Hole 82), and it started to cross the central meridian on Mar 22. Over the 24 hours, the solar wind speed increased from 360 km/s to 840 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 3 nT to 29 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -28 and 21 nT. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to continue until Mar 31 with the continuous arrival of HSSs from SIDC Coronal Holes 60, 82, and 96 (positive polarity).

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at active to moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp 4 to 6), and locally at unsettled to minor storm conditions (K_BEL 3 to 5) during the past 24 hours. The disturbed geomagnetic conditions were due to the arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the large, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 60). This coronal hole is extension of the southern polar coronal hole extending all across the solar equator (connected to equatorial SIDC Coronal Hole 82), and it started to cross the central meridian on Mar 22. In the next 24 hours, active to major storm conditions (K 4 to 7) are possible with the continuous arrival of HSSs from SIDC Coronal Holes 60, 82, and 96.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 and GOES-18 satellites, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 081, sur la base de 22 stations.

Indices solaires pour 26 Mar 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	055
AK Wingst	042
Ap estimé	045
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	052 - Basé sur 18 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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