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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 May 06 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
06 May 2025	159	016
07 May 2025	159	015
08 May 2025	157	010

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 492 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4082, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) produced three C-class flares, including the brightest event, a C2 on 5 May at 18:39 UTC. SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA AR 4079) remains very calm considering its size and Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration, as it only produced three C1 flares during the past 24 hours. For the next 24 hours C-class flares are expected, although isolated M-class flaring remains possible.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A CME seen in LASCO-C2 images as launched on 5 May at 15:00 UTC is a back-sided event and not expected to reach Earth.

Vent solaire

During the last 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained affected by the High Speed Stream (HSS) that arrived on 4 May. However, the effect is now waning as evident from the drop of the SW speed from 800 km/s to 600 km/s during the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) varied between 3 and 7 nT and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -6 and 5 nT during the same period. The SW conditions are expected to remain affected by the HSS during the next 24 hours, although the decline is very likely to continue.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions registered globally minor storm levels for a short period of time (NOAA Kp 5- on 5 May from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC), while of the rest of the last 24 hours they fluctuated between quiet and active levels (NOAA Kp 2+ to 4). Locally the geomagnetic conditions registered only up to active levels (K BEL 2 to 4) during the same period. In the next 24 hours they are expected to continue at active levels both globally and locally.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu threshold level for most of the past 24 hours, with a peak value at 16000 pfu. It is expected to remain in the same pattern during the next 24 hours but marginally subside. The 24-hour electron fluence increase to high levels since 6 May 04:50 UTC and is expected to continue at high levels for most of the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 097, sur la base de 14 stations.

Indices solaires pour 05 May 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	163
Flux solaire à 10 cm	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	026
Ap estimé	028
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	102 - Basé sur 21 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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