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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jul 01 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
01 Jul 2025	130	008
02 Jul 2025	128	043
03 Jul 2025	125	031

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was low, with several C-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a C1.9 flare, peaking at 18:34 UTC on June 30, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 543 (NOAA Active Region 4130; magnetic type beta). There are currently thirteen numbered active regions on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 541 (NOAA Active Region 4129) is currently the most magnetically complex region, with a beta-gamma configuration, but produced only low-level C-class flaring. SIDC Sunspot Group 543 (NOAA Active Region 4130) and SIDC Sunspot Group 513 have rotated onto the disk from the southeast limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 527 (NOAA Active Region 4118) is expected to rotate over the west limb in the coming hours. Two new active regions emerged in the southwest and northwest quadrants during the period, numbered SIDC Sunspot Groups 544(beta) and 545(beta), respectively, but did not produce any significant flaring activity. Low-level flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 537 (NOAA Active Region 4126; beta). The remaining active regions are relatively simple (magnetic type alpha or beta) and did not produce any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected the waning influence of high-speed streams (HSSs) from SIDC Coronal Hole 116 (negative polarity). The solar wind speed ranged between 450 km/s and 550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained below 6 nT, and its southward component fluctuated between -6 nT and 6 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over the next days, with a chance of a weak enhancement from July 02 due to the possible arrival of an ICME associated with a partial halo CME (SIDC CME 523), observed lifting from the Sun on June 28, and the anticipated high-speed stream arrival from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111).

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels globally (NOAA Kp: 2 to 3). Locally, over Belgium, active conditions were reached between 18:00 and 21:00 UTC on June 30 (K-Bel: 4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance of increasing to active conditions and isolated minor or moderate storm periods from July 02, due to the possible arrival of an ICME associated with a partial halo CME (SIDC CME 523) observed lifting from the Sun on June 28, and the expected high-speed stream arrival from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111).

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to exceed this threshold again in the coming days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate to high levels and is expected to remain at these levels over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 153, sur la base de 25 stations.

Indices solaires pour 30 Jun 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	107
Flux solaire à 10 cm	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	014
Ap estimé	015
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	153 - Basé sur 38 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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