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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jul 09 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
09 Jul 2025	121	008
10 Jul 2025	123	007
11 Jul 2025	127	010

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was an M1.3 flare (SIDC Flare 4815) peaking on July 09 at 04:25 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 522 (NOAA Active Region 4136). A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 522 (NOAA Active Region 4136) is the largest region on disk and has produced most of the flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 548 (NOAA Active Region 4136) has emerged near the center of the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 536 (NOAA Active Region 4125), SIDC Sunspot Group 540 (NOAA Active Region 4128) and SIDC Sunspot Group 541 (NOAA Active Region 4129) have started rotating over the west limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Éjection de masse coronale

A CME observed in LASCO-C2 data at 04:12 on July 09, which is associated with an M1.3 flare (SIDC Flare 4815) is expected to miss the Earth. A filament eruption was seen in SDO/AIA 304 and 194 at 06:36 UTC on July 09 near the centre of the Sun. Analysis of the event is ongoing. No other Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Trous coronaux

Returning SIDC Coronal Hole 104 (low to mid latitude coronal hole with a positive polarity) started to cross the central meridian on July 08 and is continuing to cross the central meridian.

Vent solaire

In the past 24 hours solar wind conditions at Earth gradually returned to the slow solar wind regime, due to the waning influence of a high-speed stream (HSS), associated with SIDC coronal hole 111. The solar wind speed ranged from 423 km/s to 560 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 3 nT to 7 nT, with the Bz component reaching a minimum of -5 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (Kp 1-3 & K BEL 1-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 088, sur la base de 21 stations.

Indices solaires pour 08 Jul 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	014
Ap estimé	016
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	089 - Basé sur 19 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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