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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Aug 03 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
03 Aug 2025	148	005
04 Aug 2025	150	008
05 Aug 2025	153	016

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels with background C-class flaring. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. Most of the flaring activity was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 585 (NOAA Active Region 4167) and SIDC Sunspot Group 588 (NOAA Active Region 4168), which have both increased the complexity of their underlying magnetic field and have been classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. The remaining regions have either shown signs of decay or remained simple and inactive. Isolated low C-class flaring was produced by SIDC 570 (NOAA 4153) from the west limb and by a region behind the north-east limb. The strongest activity was a C4.3 flare (SIDC Flare 5012) with peak time 02:45 UTC on Aug 03 produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 588. The solar flaring activity is expected to reach moderate levels over the next 24 hours with 75% chances for M-class flaring and small chances for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past hours the solar wind parameters as measured by ACE reflected a waning influence of the previously ongoing mild high-speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole. The total interplanetary magnetic field (B) reached a maximum of 8.1 nT with a minimum north-south component, Bz, of -5.2 nT. The solar wind speed varied between 337 km/s and 544 km/s. The B field phi angle was entirely in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to register mostly nominal slow solar wind conditions over the next 24 hours. Some enhancements are possible later on Aug 04 and Aug 05 with an anticipated new mild high speed stream arrival.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Predominantly geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with chances for isolated active periods later on Aug 04 and Aug 05, pending a possible new mild high speed stream arrival.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days with possible enhancements in case of any strong activity from SIDC Sunspot Groups 585 and 588.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 has briefly exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours, while the greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19 has remained under the 1000 pfu threshold. Both electron fluxed are expected to remain mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 139, sur la base de 20 stations.

Indices solaires pour 02 Aug 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	011
Ap estimé	011
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	137 - Basé sur 21 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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