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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Aug 06 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
06 Aug 2025	162	007
07 Aug 2025	160	022
08 Aug 2025	160	014

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been moderate, with one M-class flare and multiple C-class flares. The strongest flare was an M4.4 flare (SIDC Flare 5041) peaking at 15:53 UTC on August 05, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 588 (NOAA Active Region 4168, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). An associated type II radio burst was detected, starting from 15:58 UTC on August 05. There are currently ten numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 588 (NOAA Active Region 4168). SIDC Sunspot Group 522 (returning NOAA Active Region 4171, magnetic type alpha) has rotated on disc from the east limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 590 (NOAA Active Region 4172, magnetic type beta) has emerged in the northeast quadrant, south of SIDC Sunspot Group 554 (NOAA Active Region 4169, magnetic type alpha). SIDC Sunspot Group 591 (NOAA Active Region 4170, magnetic type beta) has emerged in the southwest quadrant, south of SIDC Sunspot Group 555 (NOAA Active Region 4161, magnetic type beta). SIDC Sunspot Groups 592 (magnetic type beta) and 593 (magnetic type alpha) have emerged in the southern hemisphere. SIDC Sunspot Group 585 (NOAA Active Region 4167, magnetic type beta) is currently rotating behind the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Groups 562 and 589 have decayed into plage. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares probable.

Éjection de masse coronale

A wide Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 537) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, starting from around 17:15 UTC on August 05, lifting off the west limb. It is most likely associated with the M4.4 flare (SIDC Flare 5041) that peaked at 15:53 UTC on August 05. An associated type IV radio emission was detected starting from 15:58 UTC on August 05. Current analysis suggests that an ICME arrival at Earth can be expected, starting from the UTC noon on August 09. A narrow CME (SIDC CME 538) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery, starting from around 06:00 UTC on August 06, directed towards the north. It is most likely associated with a filament eruption in the northeast quadrant, observed in SDO/AIA 304 data around 05:45 UTC on August 06. It is not expected to impact Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

An elongated, southern, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123) is currently crossing the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from August 09.

Vent solaire

The solar wind conditions (ACE) over the last 24 hours reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from 460 km/s to around 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 5 nT and 8 nT. The Bz component varied between -5 nT and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was in the negative sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with enhanced conditions possible in case of a glancing blow arrival, associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 534) that lifted off around 07:20 UTC on August 04.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at quiet levels over the last 24 hours (NOAA Kp 1-2), with an interval of unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 3) between 18:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC on August 05. Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at quiet levels (K Bel 2), with isolated periods of unsettled conditions (K Bel 3). Active to minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 4-5) may be expected over the next 24 hours, due to the possible arrival of a glancing blow, associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 534) that lifted off around 07:20 UTC on August 04.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no eruptive activity from SIDC Sunspot Group 585 (NOAA Active Region 4167).

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was over the 1000 pfu threshold between 19:05 UTC and 22:10 UTC on August 05. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 remained below the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 147, sur la base de 21 stations.

Indices solaires pour 05 Aug 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	106
Flux solaire à 10 cm	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	013
Ap estimé	013
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	122 - Basé sur 29 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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