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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Aug 26 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
26 Aug 2025	175	020
27 Aug 2025	180	016
28 Aug 2025	182	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 4 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M4.5 flare (SIDC Flare 5237) peaking on August 26 at 05:25 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 614 (NOAA Active Region 4197). That region and SIDC Sunspot Group 617 (NOAA Active Region 4199), both located close to the east limb, are driving most of the activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

SIDC Coronal Hole 126 (northern mid-latitude coronal hole with negative polarity) is located in the western hemisphere and its related high speed solar wind stream may arrive to the Earth in the next 24 hours.

Vent solaire

The Earth is inside slow solar wind with speeds around 400 km/s and interplanetary magnetic fields of about 5 nT (directed towards the Sun, negative polarity). A high speed solar wind stream is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours, with probably only mild effects.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (Kp and B_Bel between 0 and 3). Similar conditions are expected until the arrival of the high speed solar wind stream in the next 24 hours (mostly active conditions expected then).

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has continued to increase slowly and has almost reached the 10 pfu threshold, without going above it (currently at 9 pfu). A warning condition forecast is issued for the next 48 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and 19 remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold (except for a minimal crossing of the threshold between 13:00 and 26:00 UTC on 25 August, in GOES 19), similar conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The 24 h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 184, sur la base de 23 stations.

Indices solaires pour 25 Aug 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	125
Flux solaire à 10 cm	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	011
Ap estimé	009
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	139 - Basé sur 32 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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