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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Aug 31 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
31 Aug 2025	222	007
01 Sep 2025	222	060
02 Sep 2025	222	023

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Three M-class flares were detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a M2.7 flare (SIDC Flare 5391) peaking on August 30 at 20:02 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 617 (NOAA Active Region 4199). Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible and a chance for X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

A halo CME erupted on 30 August, first seen at 20:12 UT on SOHO LASCO C2. The CME was associated with an M2.7 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 617 (NOAA 4199), located at N04E01 (almost at disk center). This CME is Earth directed, preliminary speeds calculation estimates are about 1600 km/s, with an arrival time around 14:00 UT on 1 September. These values may be updated in the coming hours as the result of ongoing analysis.

Trous coronaux

SIDC Coronal Hole 122 (equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity) is in the western hemisphere and its associated high speed solar wind is expected today.

Vent solaire

The solar wind speed is starting to increase (currently at 450 km/s) as a result of the expected arrival from the high speed solar wind from SIDC Coronal Hole 122. This is a narrow coronal hole, so the associated high speed stream in the coming hours is expected to be short and mild in terms of speed.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (Kp and K_Bel between 0 and 3). Active conditions can be expected for today and up to major storm conditions tomorrow when the CME from 30 August is expected to arrive.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been below the 10 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain at nominal levels.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and 19 remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, similar conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The 24 h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 196, sur la base de 17 stations.

Indices solaires pour 30 Aug 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	317
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	007
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	196 - Basé sur 24 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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