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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Nov 02 1232 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
02 Nov 2025	115	016
03 Nov 2025	117	013
04 Nov 2025	119	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

A total of 2 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate with an M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 5889), peaking on November 02 at 00:26 UTC, originating from a sunspot group rotating into view over the east limb (located close to the equator). There are 3 new sunspot groups rotating into view that have been very active in the last days in terms of flares and CMEs. Therefore, solar activity is likely to increase in the next 24 hours, M-class flares can be expected.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

There are two coronal holes in the western hemisphere, both with positive polarity: SIDC Coronal Hole 123 (southern hemisphere) and SIDC Coronal Hole 129 (northern hemisphere).

Vent solaire

The Earth was under the influence of high speed solar wind from SIDC Coronal Hole 123 (southern hemisphere, positive polarity) and 129 (northern hemisphere, positive polarity). The solar wind speed reached 600 km/s, it is now at 550 km/s with an interplanetary magnetic field of 7 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Additionally, there is a possible arrival of the SIDC CME 590 expected (around 3 November, 12:00 UTC).

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (K_Bel up to 4 and Kp up to 4.33 or 4+). In the next 24 hours, similar conditions can be expected. The possible arrival of the SIDC CME 590 on 3 November may enhance the geomagnetic levels.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu threshold after 12:00 UTC on 31 October. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain above the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 043, sur la base de 12 stations.

Indices solaires pour 01 Nov 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	014
Ap estimé	014
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	020 - Basé sur 11 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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