Affichage des archives de mardi, 3 février 2026

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2026 Feb 03 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
03 Feb 2026	174	007
04 Feb 2026	176	007
05 Feb 2026	178	026

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Numerous M-class flares were detected in the last 24 hours, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) currently located at N13E20. This sunspot group has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M7.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6842) peaking on February 03 at 07:01 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366). Solar flaring activity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and X-class flares possible.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the last 24 hours. After compiling the latest observations and simulation results, the arrival time to the Earth of the CME from 2 February has been recalculated to 5 February around 6:00 UT.

Vent solaire

The Earth is within a slow solar wind stream. The solar wind speed is around 300 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) will cross the central meridian after that, becoming better magnetically connected with the Earth and increasing the risk of a proton storm.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 has been above the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to slowly return to low levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to go to normal levels over the next hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 157, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 02 Feb 2026

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	185
Flux solaire à 10 cm	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	006
Ap estimé	006
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	132 - Basé sur 12 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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