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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2026 May 09 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
09 May 2026	123	004
10 May 2026	125	004
11 May 2026	127	004

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity has at low levels over the past 24 hours. A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. The strongest activity was a C4.2 flare (SIDC Flare 7629) peaking on May 08 at 15:51 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 860 (NOAA Active Region 4432). This region, currently located at N13W33, was responsible for all notable flaring activity registered over the past 24 hours. It is classified as magnetic type beta-gamma and has exhibited further growth. SIDC Sunspot Group 866 (magnetic type beta) which previously produced M-class flaring from behind the east limb, has now rotated on disc, currently located at N18E76, but remained quiet. The remaining regions are relatively simple with magnetic type alpha or beta and have either remained stable or exhibited some decline. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected and 50% chances for isolated M-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CMEs) have been identified in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Trous coronaux

A small mid-latitude positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 161) is currently residing on the central meridian. The high- speed stream related to it is expected to miss the Earth with small chances for a mild arrival on May 12.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (as measured by ACE at L1) was under the influence of a mild high speed stream associated with a positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC CH 158). The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (B) reached a maximum of 12.9 nT. The north-south (Bz) component was predominantly positive (northward) with a minimum value of -9 nT. The solar wind speed was varying in the range of 460 to 600 km/s. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) reflecting the polarity of the geo-effective coronal hole. The solar wind parameters over the next 24 hours are expected to register the waning influence of the ongoing high- speed stream with expected return towards background slow solar wind conditions towards the end of May 10.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours have been globally quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods were registered locally over Belgium between 14:00 to 15:00 UTC and 17:00 to 19:00 UTC on May 08. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with chances for isolated unsettled periods. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected on May 10 and May 11.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the 24 hours over the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours and possibly crossed the 1000 pfu threshold thereafter. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 091, sur la base de 18 stations.

Indices solaires pour 08 May 2026

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	094
Flux solaire à 10 cm	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	017
Ap estimé	016
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	074 - Basé sur 26 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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