Previsioni Meteorologiche Spaziali - Discussione

Emesso: 2025 Dec 14 1230 UTC
Preparati dal Dipartimento di Commercio degli Stati Uniti, NOAA, Centro di Previsione Meteorologica Spaziale e elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.com

Attività solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar activity was at low levels with C-class flare activity observed. The largest flare of the period was a C3.8 flare at 14/0742 UTC from a source beyond the SW limb. Accompanying the flare was a Type-II radio sweep with an estimated velocity of 585 km/s, and a CME off the SW in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 14/0800 UTC that is not expected to be Earth-directed. Slight development was noted in Region 4308 (N06E38, Cao/beta), while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Previsione

There is a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity over 14-16 Dec.

Particelle energetiche

Sommario di 24 ore

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels during the period.

Previsione

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 14 Dec, with high levels likely on 15-16 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 16 Dec.

Vento Solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar wind parameters suggested the continued, but weakening influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) decreased from 14 nT to around 2 nT, and the Bz component was mostly neutral or northward throughout the period. Wind speeds reached a peak of 700 km/s at around 13/1900 UTC, before slowly decreasing to around 550 km/s by the end of the period. Phi angle was predominately negative throughout the period.

Previsione

Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and diminishing negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected over 14-16 Dec.

Geospaziale

Sommario di 24 ore

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under continued, but weakening, negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Previsione

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with a chance for active conditions, over 14-16 Dec as negative polarity CH HSS influences slowly diminish throughout the forecast period.