Previsioni Meteorologiche Spaziali - Discussione

Emesso: 2026 May 07 1230 UTC
Preparati dal Dipartimento di Commercio degli Stati Uniti, NOAA, Centro di Previsione Meteorologica Spaziale e elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.com

Attività solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar activity was at low levels during the reporting period with occasional B-class and isolated low-level C-class flares. The largest event of the period was a C1.4/Sf flare from Region 4429 (S05W47, Cri/beta) at 05/1724 UTC. There are currently six numbered regions on the visible disk as Region 4434 (N12, L=41) decayed to plage and Region 4428 (S23, L=170) rotated beyond the western limb as an E-type group. The remaining regions mostly showed signs of decay. Region 4425 (N05W88, Hsx/alpha) appeared stable, though full characterization is difficult due to extreme limb proximity. Region 4429 (S05W47, Bxi/beta) showed continued submergence and decay, decreasing in both area and length along with a total loss of penumbra. Region 4431 (S16W15, Cao/beta) showed some minor new development, with a few small spots emerging in both polarities following recent decay. Region 4432 (N13W01, Cri/beta) had minor emergence in its intermediate spots, despite an overall gradual decrease in extent. The remaining regions were mostly stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Previsione

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 07 May, with a slight chance for isolated M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares. Flare probabilities increase beginning 08 May as up to two active regions near L=330 rotate into view from beyond the eastern limb. Considering the size of these regions and recent far-side eruptions seen in coronagraph imagery, solar activity is expected to increase 08-09 May with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater) flares.

Particelle energetiche

Sommario di 24 ore

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels, with a peak flux of 407 pfu observed at 06/0415 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Previsione

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to moderate levels through 08 May. An increase to high levels is expected by 09 May in response to the anticipated onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 09 May.

Vento Solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar wind parameters returned to near background levels as transient CME influences waned. Total magnetic field (Bt) gradually declined from earlier enhancements, ending the period around 5 nT. The North-South (Bz) was almost exclusively northward with only a quick deviation south to -3 nT late in the period. Solar wind speeds averaged around 375 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) orientation for the majority of the period with a few, short-lived oscillations into a negative (toward) orientation during the period.

Previsione

Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect a slow wind regime into early 07 May. By mid-to-late 07 May, the onset of a +CH HSS is expected with CH HSS influences persisting through 08 May before beginning to subside on 09 May.

Geospaziale

Sommario di 24 ore

The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the entire reporting period.

Previsione

The geomagnetic field is likely to remain mostly quiet until mid-to-late 07 May, when an increase to active levels is anticipated due to the onset of +CH HSS influences. Active conditions are expected to persist into 08 May, with a chance for isolated periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming late on 07 May through 08 May. A decline to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 09 May as CH HSS influences wane.