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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2014 Jan 31 1221 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Quiet

	strumień 10cm	Ap
31 Jan 2014	163	002
01 Feb 2014	165	006
02 Feb 2014	166	024

Skrót wiadomości

Solar activity has been at active levels over the last 24 hours. 6 C- and 1 M-class flares were recorded, all originating from NOAA 1967. The strongest was an M6-flare peaking at 16:11UT. The sunspot region still has a few magnetic delta structures. The x-ray background has been all day above the C1-level. Active conditions are expected to continue, with a slight chance on an X-class flare. A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO/C2 starting at 08:12UT. It was most probably associated to the M2-class event that took place in NOAA 1967 (maximum at 06:39UT). It has a slow speed of about 350 km/s. A full halo CME was observed in LASCO/C2 starting 16:12UT. It was associated to the M6-flare, and had an initial plane-of-sky speed of 1735 km/s (latest CACTUS result). The bulk of the CME was directed away (to the southeast) from Earth. It is very likely this CME will overtake the partial halo CME of the M2-event. Solar wind parameters are currently at average levels, with a speed near 350 km/s and Bz fluctuating between -3 and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet. For the next 24 hours, solar wind may continue to be modulated by the effects of small coronal holes that have passed the central meridian on 27 and 29 January. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for that period. Late on 1 February, Earth may receive a glancing blow from the 29 January CME, but little geomagnetic disturbances are expected. This may change upon the arrival of the CME from the M6-event, which is currently foreseen for the morning of 2 February. This may result in active geomagnetic conditions, with locally a minor storm possible.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 065, na podstawie 14 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 30 Jan 2014

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	///
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	004
AK Wingst	002
Szacunkowa Ap	003
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	074 - Na podstawie stacji 11

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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