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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2014 Dec 06 1401 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	strumień 10cm	Ap
06 Dec 2014	134	015
07 Dec 2014	130	010
08 Dec 2014	128	005

Skrót wiadomości

The strongest flare in last 24 hours was the M1.5 flare (peaking at 12:25 UT) on December 5. The M-class flare was one more confined flare (SOHO/LASCO observations show data gap, however the SDO/AIA data do not show any on-disc signatures of the CME) which originated from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222). No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares and possibly also isolated M-class flares from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222) which still maintains beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Since this active region is approaching to the west solar limb (about S20 W58), eruptions and flaring activity originating from this active region might be accompanied with the particle event. We maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is currently about 480 km/s. The slow increase of the solar wind speed and density, concurrent with the strong increase of interplanetary magnetic field has started early today. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is elevated during the last 5 hours and it amounts about 21 nT, indicating possible arrival of the ICME of still unclear solar origin. If the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field turns to negative values we might expect active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 046, na podstawie 16 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 05 Dec 2014

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	///
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	012
Szacunkowa Ap	011
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	043 - Na podstawie stacji 09

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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