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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2015 May 12 1230 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	strumień 10cm	Ap
12 May 2015	165	026
13 May 2015	165	034
14 May 2015	163	024

Skrót wiadomości

NOAA 2339 produced only low-level C-class flares, mainly over its mixed polarity trailing portion. The strongest flare was a C3.0 flare peaking at 11:51UT, with radio-bursts observed at Humain. A filament erupted at the west solar limb between 02:10 and 03:00UT. It was associated with a C2.6 flare peaking at 03:02UT. Probably in response to this event, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux started to increase shortly after 04:00UT, but did not reach event threshold (10 pfu), reaching a maximum of 6.2 pfu at 07:30UT. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed over the period.

Further C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an M-class flare.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed, with an active interval at Dourbes (K = 4). Starting around 05:30UT, solar wind speed gradually picked up from 340 km/s to its current value of about 380 km/s. With temperature increasing and density slightly decreasing, this may herald the anticipated arrival of the high speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole. Bz was mostly negative throughout the period, varying between -8 and + 4 nT.

Unsettled to minor storming conditions are expected.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 121, na podstawie 14 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 11 May 2015

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	180
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	016
Szacunkowa Ap	018
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	114 - Na podstawie stacji 26

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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