Przeglądasz Archiwum z czwartek, 14 maja 2015

Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2015 May 14 1230 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Quiet

	strumień 10cm	Ap
14 May 2015	153	014
15 May 2015	150	015
16 May 2015	148	015

Skrót wiadomości

The eruption of a filament near NOAA 2345 was accompanied by the strongest flaring event of the period, a C9.2 flare peaking on 13 May at 18:18UT. Coronagraphic imagery indicates that the bulk of the coronal mass ejection (CME) was directed to the north and away from Earth. However, difference imagery (CACTus) shows the faint outline of an asymmetric halo CME having a plane-of-the-sky speed of about 240 km/s. Provided this is not from a backside event, an impact from the shock is possible on 18 May, but the geomagnetic effects are expected to be limited. NOAA 2339 produced 2 low-level C-class flares near its leading sunspots, while the other regions were quiet. The other observed CMEs had no earth-directed component.

Further C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an M-class flare.

Solar wind speed slowly undulated around 700 km/s as a result of the high speed stream (HSS) from the recurrent coronal hole. Bz-values were small and varied mostly between -6 and +4 nT. Only quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist, with a chance on a minor storming episode.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 121, na podstawie 21 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 13 May 2015

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	200
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	040
Szacunkowa Ap	042
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	122 - Na podstawie stacji 26

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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