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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2016 Jan 28 1231 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Quiet

	strumień 10cm	Ap
28 Jan 2016	118	011
29 Jan 2016	119	013
30 Jan 2016	120	011

Skrót wiadomości

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low, but increasing. The largest flare was a C5.3 class flare. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2488 (Macintosh class:Dao; Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, producing the C5.3 class flare, which peaked at 05:23 UT. ARs 2489 (Dki; Beta) and 2490 (Dro; Beta) have shown some low level activity. ARs 2488 and 2489 have shown some evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI observations, this may increase flaring activity. There is currently a large positive Northern polar coronal hole in the Western hemisphere which is expected to increase solar wind speeds. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed slowly decreased throughout yesterday (27-Jan-2016) to around 320 km/s. As we passed a sector boundary this morning at 06:00 UT the speed jumped to around 370 km/s, from which point the speed has plateaued. The total magnetic field strength has remained stable around 9 nT. The Bz component was largely positive yesterday, fluctuating between -5 and 5 nT. However, the field turned negative this morning at 06:00 UT and has remained mainly negative around -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-3 (NOAA) and local K index 0-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A positive polar coronal hole is currently positioned in the Western hemisphere of the Sun and the resulting high-speed stream (HSS) is expected to enhance solar wind speeds today and tomorrow, with a negative Bz this may increase geo-activity over the next couple of days.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 069, na podstawie 13 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 27 Jan 2016

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	099
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	113
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	004
Szacunkowa Ap	003
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	080 - Na podstawie stacji 15

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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