Przeglądasz Archiwum z środa, 13 października 2021

Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2021 Oct 13 1231 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetyzm

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Quiet

	strumień 10cm	Ap
13 Oct 2021	084	014
14 Oct 2021	084	020
15 Oct 2021	084	018

Skrót wiadomości

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 40%, with a slight chance for an M flare.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 2 MeV electron fluence were at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and are both expected to increase to moderate levels in the next 24 hours as a response to the ICME which arrived on October 12.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 425 and 510 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 425 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between about 1 and 15 nT, and has returned to nominal values of about 5 nT around 22h UT on October 12. IMF orientation was variable. Bz was mostly below -5 nT between 12h and 14h UT on October 12, with a minimum of -10 nT. A high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth on October 13. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on October 13, 14 and 15.

Quiet to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 5; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on October 13, 14 and 15 after the arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole, which is expected on October 13.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 016, na podstawie 19 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 12 Oct 2021

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	028
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	084
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Szacunkowa Ap	055
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	015 - Na podstawie stacji 24

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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