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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2021 Nov 16 1231 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetyzm

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Quiet

	strumień 10cm	Ap
16 Nov 2021	080	021
17 Nov 2021	080	022
18 Nov 2021	080	011

Skrót wiadomości

A new, unnumbered alpha region has rotated over the East limb. The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 25%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. There is a chance that the electron flux will exceed that threshold again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Around 15:00 UT on November 15, the solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR started increasing from about 315 km/s to a maximum of 630 km/s, with current values around 600 km/s. Around 17:30 UT, the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) started increasing from about 5 nT to a maximum of about 23 nT, with current values around 4 nT. IMF orientation was predominantly towards the Sun. This marks the arrival of a predicted high speed stream from a negative polarity extension of the south polar coronal hole. Bz was regularly below -5 nT, with a mimimum of about -17 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 4-5) are possible on November 16, 17 and 18 due to the arrival of the high speed stream mentioned above.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 030, na podstawie 11 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 15 Nov 2021

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	034
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	079
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	014
Szacunkowa Ap	014
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	023 - Na podstawie stacji 12

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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