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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2022 Feb 27 1231 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Quiet

	strumień 10cm	Ap
27 Feb 2022	099	013
28 Feb 2022	099	012
01 Mar 2022	099	007

Skrót wiadomości

A region rotating into view from behind the southeast limb produced a C1.5 flare peaking at 06:26 UT on February 27. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 70%, mainly from three as yet unnumbered regions near the East limb, with a 10% chance for an M flare.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours, and may exceed that threshold again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR started increasing around 21:40 UT on February 26 from about 355 to a maximum of 470 km/s, with current values around 460 km/s. Around the same time, the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) increased from about 2 to a maximum of 14 nT, with current values around 10 nT. Its orientation was predominantly away from the Sun. Bz was mainly below -5 nT between 05:00 and 07:00 UT on February 27, with a maximal southward extension of Bz = -13 nT. These enhanced solar wind conditions reflect the predicted arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole, and are expected to persist in the next few days.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals (K-BEL = 4) are possible on February 27 and 28 and March 1, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 5).

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 029, na podstawie 24 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 26 Feb 2022

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	///
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	097
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	001
Szacunkowa Ap	001
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	026 - Na podstawie stacji 31

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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