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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2023 Sep 18 1231 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Quiet

	strumień 10cm	Ap
18 Sep 2023	138	011
19 Sep 2023	138	037
20 Sep 2023	138	007

Aktywne obszary słoneczne i rozbłyski

There are six active regions visible on the disk. Only minor C-class flaring was observed in the last 24 hours. The active regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. More C-class flaring is expected.

Koronalny wyrzut masy

A partial halo CME was detected by LASCO/C2 at 13:25 UTC on 17 September. The source region of the CME is close to the SW limb, there are low chances of seeing a glancing blow at the Earth, or a shock at most, on 21 September.

Dziury koronalne

The fast solar wind from two small coronal holes may affect the Earth in the next 24-48 hours. One of them has positive polarity and is located in the southern hemisphere (close to the equator), the second one has negative polarity and is located in the northern hemisphere.

Wiatr słoneczny

The solar wind data at Earth shows the arrival of an ICME, corresponding to the CME on 14 September. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 11 nT with Bz down to -7 nT and solar wind speeds around 430 km/s. Although the effects of this ICME are anticipated to diminish within the next 24 hours, another ICME event, corresponding to the CME from 16 September, is predicted to impact Earth on 19 September, potentially with greater intensity.

Geomagnetyzm

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions have reached minor storm levels globally (Kp 5) and unsettled locally (K_Bel 3), due to the ICME arrival (from the CME on 14 September). Moderate storm levels (and up to major storm levels) can be expected when the ICME corresponding to the 16 September CME arrives to the Earth in about 24 hours.

Poziomy przepływu protonów

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Strumienie elektronów na orbicie geostacjonarnej

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in t

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 125, na podstawie 14 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 17 Sep 2023

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	///
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	016
Szacunkowa Ap	017
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	097 - Na podstawie stacji 17

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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