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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2024 Jul 17 1232 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Quiet

	strumień 10cm	Ap
17 Jul 2024	242	008
18 Jul 2024	235	018
19 Jul 2024	230	013

Aktywne obszary słoneczne i rozbłyski

Solar flaring activity was high during the past 24 hours with an X1.9 flare emitted by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3738 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta) at 16 Jul 13:26 UTC. Five M-class flares were also detected as associated with four AR. NOAA AR 3743 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 93) produced an M5.0 at 17 Jul 06:39 UTC and an M3.4 at 17 Jul 07:08 UTC. NOAA AR 3744 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 96) registered an M1.9 at 16 Jul 22:06 UTC and NOAA AR 3753 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 8) is associated with an M1.6 at 16 Jul 21:24 UTC. NOAA AR 3738 produced the more recent M-class flare, an M1.2 at 17 Jul 09:45 UTC. In the next 24 hours M-class flaring activity is expected mostly from NOAA AR 3743, 3738, 3751, or 3753 and there is a chance of an isolated, low- intensity X-class flare.

Koronalny wyrzut masy

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seen in SOHO/LASCO C-2 images as launched at 16/7 13:48 UTC is associated with NOAA active region 3738 and the X1.9 flare of 13:26 UTC, hence not expected to be Earth-directed.

Wiatr słoneczny

Solar Wind (SW) conditions returned to the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 330 and 420 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) dropped from 15 to 3 nT during the past 24 hours. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -7 and 13 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective in the next 24 hours and cause a significant disturbance.

Geomagnetyzm

Global and local geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet during the past 24 hours, with short intervals of unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 3- and K BEL 3 at 16 Jul 15:00-18:00 UTC and K BEL 3 at 17 Jul 09:00-12:00 UTC). A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours and cause levels to increase to active and possibly minor storm conditions.

Poziomy przepływu protonów

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Strumienie elektronów na orbicie geostacjonarnej

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 276, na podstawie 18 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 16 Jul 2024

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	331
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	242
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	016
Szacunkowa Ap	015
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	287 - Na podstawie stacji 23

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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