Przeglądasz Archiwum z poniedziałek, 7 października 2024

Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2024 Oct 07 1231 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	strumień 10cm	Ap
07 Oct 2024	257	030
08 Oct 2024	254	010
09 Oct 2024	251	011

Aktywne obszary słoneczne i rozbłyski

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with four M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M1.5 flare peaking at 21:19 UTC on October 06, associated with SIDC sunspot group (SG) 249 (NOAA AR 3839, magnetic type alpha). There are currently eight numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC SG 257 (NOAA AR 3842, magnetic type beta-gamma-delta). SIDC SG 279 (NOAA AR 3850, magnetic type beta-gamma) has emerged in the southeast quadrant. A new, active region (SIDC SG 281) is rotating on disk from the east limb, in the southeast quadrant. SIDC SGs 249, 254, 272, 273 (NOAA ARs 3839, 3841, 3843, 3844) are currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Koronalny wyrzut masy

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Wiatr słoneczny

The solar wind conditions were enhanced during the last 24 hours following the arrival of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) as reported on October 06. Speed values reached 540 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 17 nT. The Bz component varied between -11 nT and 16 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle varied between the positive and negative sector. Further enhancements in the solar wind conditions may be expected over the next 24 hours due to the predicted arrival of the CME observed on October 04.

Geomagnetyzm

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5+) between 21:00 UTC on October 06 and 06:00 UTC on October 07. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached minor storm conditions (K BEL 5) between 00:00 UTC and 02:00 UTC on October 07. The minor storm conditions were a consequence of the arrival of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) arrival that was reported on October 06. Active conditions (NOAA Kp 4) with possible minor storm intervals (NOAA Kp 5) may be expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours due to the predicted arrival of the CME observed on October 04.

Poziomy przepływu protonów

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Strumienie elektronów na orbicie geostacjonarnej

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased between 16:00 UTC and 22:00 UTC on October 06 but remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 173, na podstawie 16 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 06 Oct 2024

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	///
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	265
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	015
Szacunkowa Ap	016
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	171 - Na podstawie stacji 19

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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