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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2025 Jan 15 1231 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Quiet

	strumień 10cm	Ap
15 Jan 2025	165	012
16 Jan 2025	170	021
17 Jan 2025	175	022

Aktywne obszary słoneczne i rozbłyski

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a C6.3-flare, with peak time 08:56 UTC on Jan 15 2025, from SIDC Sunspot Group 346 NOAA AR 3961 (beta). There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 342 (NOAA AR 3959) is the most complex AR (beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable.

Koronalny wyrzut masy

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Dziury koronalne

The large east-west elongated negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) is still crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth starting on Jan 16.

Wiatr słoneczny

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind has gradually increased speeds around 520 km/s and is currently again around 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is stable to 8 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. Enhancements of the solar wind speed are expected in the next 24h, due to the potential arrival of the high-speed stream (HSS) associated with the coronal hole, which started to cross the central meridian on 13 Jan 2025.

Geomagnetyzm

Geomagnetic conditions were globally unsettled to active (Kp 4) and locally unsettled (K Bel 3). Quiet to active conditions with possible isolated minor geomagnetic storm levels are expected for the next 24 hours.

Poziomy przepływu protonów

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Strumienie elektronów na orbicie geostacjonarnej

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and, even if a slight increase may be observed, it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 066, na podstawie 04 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 14 Jan 2025

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	///
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	012
Szacunkowa Ap	012
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	078 - Na podstawie stacji 18

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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