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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2025 Mar 30 1249 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Quiet

	strumień 10cm	Ap
30 Mar 2025	155	020
31 Mar 2025	153	038
01 Apr 2025	151	007

Aktywne obszary słoneczne i rozbłyski

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 3 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 3953) peaking at 23:00 UTC on March 29, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 461 (NOAA Active Region 4048). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 455 (NOAA Active Region 4043) is the complex region with its beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours with M-class flares expected, and a chance of X-class flares.

Koronalny wyrzut masy

A filament erupted in the NE quadrant around 01:00 UTC on Mar 30, but no associated CME was found in the available SOHO/LASCO-C2 images. Another filament erupted (around 08:00 UT on Mar 30) in the NW quadrant leading to a CME seen around 08:55 UTC on Mar 30, and the initial analysis suggests that this CME is not expected to arrive at Earth. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Wiatr słoneczny

Solar wind parameters are transitioning from fast to slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed has decreased from 530 km/s and 430 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 2 nT to 7 nT. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected in the next 24 hours, due to the possible arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) associated with a partial halo CME that was observed lifting from the Sun on Mar 28.

Geomagnetyzm

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 3) and locally at quiet (K BEL 1 to 2). Active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) are expected in the next 24 hours, due to the possible arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) associated with a partial halo CME that was observed lifting from the Sun on Mar 28.

Poziomy przepływu protonów

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux showed a small enhancement since 02:00 UTC on Mar 30, possibly associated with flaring activities from SIDC Sunspot Group 461 (NOAA Active Region 4048). However, it remained below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Strumienie elektronów na orbicie geostacjonarnej

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, continues to be above the 1000 pfu threshold level since 08:30 UTC on Mar 29 in response to the high speed streams associated with the SIDC Coronal Holes 60, 82, and 96. It is expected to remain above the threshold level in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 12:50 UTC on Mar 29 and dropped below the threshold level at 04:10 UTC on Mar 30. It is expected to increase above the threshold level in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at moderate level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 122, na podstawie 11 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 29 Mar 2025

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	///
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	007
Szacunkowa Ap	008
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	093 - Na podstawie stacji 15

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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