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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2025 Jul 15 1231 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Quiet

	strumień 10cm	Ap
15 Jul 2025	129	017
16 Jul 2025	135	035
17 Jul 2025	137	034

Aktywne obszary słoneczne i rozbłyski

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 555 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4141, Beta magnetic configuration) and SIDC Sunspot Group 548 (NOAA AR 4137, Beta magnetic configuration) produced almost all the C-class flaring activity. The largest flare (SIDC Flare 4891, peaking on July 14 at 17:06 UTC), is associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 555. Further C-class activity is expected in the next 24 hours, with a chance of isolated M-class flare(s).

Koronalny wyrzut masy

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A CME seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images from 15 Jul 08:36 UTC onwards is associated with a large filament eruption and the early estimation is that it is not directed towards Earth. When further data become available a more detail investigation will be carried out. A partial halo CME can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images and was detected by CACTus as launched on 14 Jul at 21:48 UTC. This event is most likely two back-sided CME in close proximity. As such they are not expected to become geo-effective.

Wiatr słoneczny

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions continued to be affected by the the High Speed Stream (HSS) that arrived on 11 July and is associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 104 (positive polarity). The SW speed increased rapidly to 600 km/s on 15 Jul at 06:00 UTC and fluctuates between 600 km/s and 750 km/s since. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) varied between 2 and 11 nT and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -10 and 9 nT. The fast SW conditions are expected to persist in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetyzm

Geomagnetic conditions registered globally minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5- on 14 Jul at 18:00 to 21:00 UTC, Kp 5 on 15 Jul at 06:00 to 09:00 UTC, Kp 5- on 15 Jul at 09:00 to 12:00 UTC), while of the rest of the last 24 hours they were mostly at active levels. Locally the conditions were similar, with minor storm levels (K BEL 5) registering on 15 Jul from 06:00 to 09:00 UTC and unsettled to active conditions the rest of the time. Minor to moderate storm levels are expected in the next 24 hours as the HSS affecting the Earth's environment has now intensified.

Poziomy przepływu protonów

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, there is a small chance that a proton event might occur during the next 24 hours.

Strumienie elektronów na orbicie geostacjonarnej

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES 19, fluctuated around the 1000 pfu alert threshold. It is expected to further increase in the next 24 hours and exceed the alert threshold. The 24-hour electron fluence increased during the past 24 hours but remained at normal levels. It is expected to further increase and reach moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 174, na podstawie 21 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 14 Jul 2025

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	162
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	018
Szacunkowa Ap	015
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	142 - Na podstawie stacji 22

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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