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Codzienne wiadomości na temat aktywności słonecznej i geomagnetycznej z SIDC

Odnotowany: 2025 Nov 14 1241 UTC

Prognoza SIDC

Rozbłyski słoneczne

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetyzm

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Monitoring przepływu protonów

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	strumień 10cm	Ap
14 Nov 2025	156	010
15 Nov 2025	170	008
16 Nov 2025	165	004

Aktywne obszary słoneczne i rozbłyski

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with an X4.1 flare (SIDC flare 6063) observed on 14 Nov at 08:30 UTC. SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 687 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4274, Beta- Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration) produced the said flare together with the majority of the flaring activity. SIDC SG 689 (NOAA AR 4276, Beta magnetic configuration) produced the rest of the C-class flaring activity. In the next 24 hours isolated M-class flares are likely to occur from SIDC SG 687 and there is a small chance of another X-class flare from the same SG/AR.

Koronalny wyrzut masy

SIDC flare 6063 (an X4.1 flare emitted on 14 Nov at 08:30 UTC) has caused a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that can potentially impact Earth. However, there are not yet enough observations available for a meaningful forecast. More information will be provided in the next Ursigram.

Dziury koronalne

SIDC Coronal Hole 126 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity) first reached the central meridian on November 13. It is expected to produce a High Speed Stream (HSS) that will become geo- effective on 17 Nov.

Wiatr słoneczny

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions moved towards a slow SW regime. The SW speed dropped from a peak at 880 km/s to 580 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) also dropped, from a peak of 11 nT to 4 nT, and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -3 nT and 9 nT at the second half of 13 Nov, but now registers values around 5 nT. For the next 24 hours the SW conditions are expected to reach slow SW levels.

Geomagnetyzm

The global geomagnetic conditions were at the minor storm level (NOAA Kp 5) on 13 Nov from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC. For the rest of the past 24 hours they fluctuated between quiet and active conditions (NOAA Kp 1- to 4). The local geomagnetic conditions were also varying between quiet and active levels (K BEL 1 to 4) but did not register stormy conditions at any interval. For the next 24 hours both the global and local geomagnetic conditions are expected to range between quiet and unsettled levels.

Poziomy przepływu protonów

During the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, dropped bellow the 10 pfu threshold level on 13 Nov at 15:00 UTC. However, SIDC flare 6063 (an X4.1 flare) cause another proton even and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded again the 10 pfu alert threshold on 14 Nov 09:20 UTC. The new proton event is relatively weak hence the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is not expected to increase much further in the next 24 hours, rather stay close to the 10 pfu level.

Strumienie elektronów na orbicie geostacjonarnej

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19 was below but close to the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase in the next 24 hours and possibly cross the alert threshold. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Dzisiejsza szacunkowa międzynarodowa liczba plam na Słońcu (ISN): 091, na podstawie 04 stacji.

Indeksy solarne na 13 Nov 2025

Liczba Wolfa z Katanii	137
Fale radiowe 10,7 cm	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	036
AK Wingst	039
Szacunkowa Ap	056
Szacowana międzynarodowa liczba plam słonecznych	135 - Na podstawie stacji 19

Podsumowanie wydarzeń godnych uwagi

Dostarczone przez Centrum Analizy Danych Wpływów Słonecznych© - SIDC - Przetworzone przez SpaceWeatherLive

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